Why I’m Voting for Huckabee. And Super Tuesday Predictions

4 02 2008

Filed under: Election, 2008, Super Tuesday, Politics, Conservatism

One earlier prediction is coming true – at least partially: Conservatives, now realizing that Huckabee is far more conservative than Romney (a pro-abortion and pro-same-sex marriage governor) or especially McCain (McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, McCain-Lieberman, the Keating 5, and the Gang of 14), are reacting without admitting it. It’s too late. The damage has been done.

McCain recently said “it’s not the social issues he cares about.” Huh?! Ann Coulter will campaign for Hillary if McCain is the nominee. RedState ponders the state of the union under McCain. Talk radio kings Mark Levin and Sean Hannity are now ready to rally to Romney.

I guess my question after seeing all of this is why not support Romney in the first place? Because there was a better candidate in the race at the time? If Romney wasn’t good enough to beat out that candidate in the minds of conservatives, why will he be a better candidate to vote for now? In other words, why is it ok to vote for him now, but not before? Is he really worth voting for, as a conservative, or is he a “settle-for vote” or a “prevent-_______” vote? Is this how our votes as conservatives are now defined?

Maybe the better question is what values are conservatives voting on, if any at all? I, like most social conservatives, vote on values. I’ll vote for the strongest nominee representing my values, regardless of his electability or “prevent-factor.” Huckabee is the strongest social conservative in the race. He certainly isn’t perfect on defense or economics, but he has enough of those two to have the support of most social conservative voters. Romney’s strength is economics. He has some defense, but scores low in social. Plus, he’s a “manufactured” Republican who will say anything to get elected. McCain, well . . . see the above five reasons in the opening paragraph. He’s a liberal.

But one blogger I know is at least taking another look at Huckabee. Though he’s not completely forthright about Huckabee’s stances, he’s at least stopped labeling him a liberal and realized Huckabee is far more conservative than Romney or McCain.

Romney’s sentiment for Huckabee to get out of the race because he is taking votes from him is shared by Hannity and other conservatives. This political ploy will only alienate supporters of Huckabee from potentially voting for Romney in the national election, should he win the nomination. In my mind, Romney is taking votes from Huckabee. After all, Huckabee might trail Romney only in electability, and after Iowa, even that was nullified.

Jim Robinson of Free Republic has bold aspirations:

….if we can keep Huckabee in the race all the way through, thus preventing McCain or Romney from gaining enough delegates to win the nomination, then maybe, just maybe a deadlocked convention might seek out another candidate. One who can re-unite the Reagan Coalition, save the GOP, and put us back on the conservative track. Of course, my personal favorite to be that man would be Fred Thompson.

Here are my predictions for Super Tuesday and forward.

The following states vote tomorrow: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia.

  1. Huckabee will win 4 of the 5 southern states.
  2. Huckabee will not win the nomination.
  3. McCain will win the nomination.
  4. McCain will lose the national election to whomever the Democrats nominate.

No Republican will win the presidency without the south and you certainly can’t win while alienating the social leg of conservatism. Even if McCain does, a two-legged stool won’t stand more than four years.

Regardless of who win this election, there are no true conservatives that can win. Which means the next president will only last four years. It took a Jimmy Carter to give us Reagan. What will Hillary, Obama, or McCain bring?

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